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DRAM Prices Go into Free Fall, Gartner Analysts Says
A significant and unanticipated drop in DRAM spot prices (immediate cash prices) has been going on for two weeks, analysts at Gartner / Dataquest say. The highest rates of price decline are demonstrated by chips with a density of 1 Gbit.
Spot prices are falling continuously. The average price across all density options and technologies has decreased over the past week by 5.6% compared to the previous week, to $ 1.45 for an equivalent 1-Gbps component. Recall, according to another estimate, the average price of a 1 Gb DDR2 eTT chip last week was $ 1.23.
In the third quarter, the average price fell by 36.2% compared to the second quarter, and if you compare today’s figures with the data of the same quarter last year, the decline is 58.6%.
Gartner experts draw attention to the fact that in the report for the last quarter, Micron Technologies announced a revision of the investment schedule in MeiYa Technology – a joint venture with Nanya Technology for the production of memory chips. Analysts suggest that, in fact, the commissioning of factories has already been “paused”; it was previously assumed that the first MeiYa Technology products would hit the market in the first half of the year.
At the same time, it is known that Micron plans to acquire a 35.6% stake in Qimonda in the Inotera Memory JV (in which Nanya owns another 35.6%, the rest is in circulation on the Taiwan Stock Exchange). If this happens, the introduction of Micron technologies at the acquired production will become a priority for Micron and Nanya. Gartner believes that with limited capital resources, it makes sense for Micron to focus on Inotera and suspend investments in MeiYa.
Inotera now provides slightly less than 40% of Qimonda’s production. The loss of such a large production will inevitably reduce the market share of Qimonda, which in the second quarter accounted for 8.5% of the global market. As a result, Qimonda may decide to leave the market altogether. On the other hand, the company has a chance to maintain its position by accelerating the transition to 65nm buried wordline technology in its other factories.