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Again AMD and Moore’s Law – a small investigative journalism

Recently we published material based on the report of analysts Raymond James & Associates, in which far-reaching conclusions are made on the topic of the unenviable prospects of this company on the basis of allegedly “AMD’s violation of Moore’s Law”. The categorical judgments and suspicious coincidence in time with the Intel Developers Forum taking place these days prompted us to do a little additional research on the topic.

First of all, it should be noted that Moore’s law itself literally states the following: “the density of transistors in a processor doubles every 24 months.”. Accordingly, at the time of the transition to a thinner process technology (say, from 65 to 45 nm), both AMD and Intel, and all other semiconductor companies, have exactly the same size compaction of the placement of transistors on the processor crystal. And how for a single AMD with the transition to 45 nm “the situation may worsen”, we can only guess. Now, if Intel switched to a 45nm process technology, and AMD, say, to 50nm, the statement would make sense.

However, Intel is approximately 3 months to six months ahead of other major chip manufacturers in terms of the speed of transition to the next “nanometer” stage. But if there is anything we can talk about now in this regard, it is about the outlined reduction in the gap. And just AMD, which previously did not force such transitions, is going to hurry up against its original plans with the release of products using the 45-nm process technology (that is, it is just accelerating in terms of Moore’s Law). As for the leader in the miniaturization of technical processes, then it may unexpectedly be TSMC, which, in particular, produces graphics processors for AMD and NVIDIA. Since it is going to start mass production of 40nm process technology already this year, while Intel will adhere to 45nm technologies for at least another year.

But let’s tell the whole truth – a smaller process technology alone does not guarantee superior performance. There is no need to look far for examples – Intel Pentium D, manufactured using 65nm process technology, was outperformed by its competitor, AMD Athlon 64 X2 (originally manufactured at 90nm). Moreover, in both parameters, which are influenced by the technical process (it was inferior in performance, and at the same time had a higher heat release).

However, Gordon Moore himself did not touch on the consumer characteristics of processors in his law, so the claims are not against him. Probably analysts “had in mind” some other interpretation of this law. Let’s try to guess which one. At a time when Pentium 4 frequencies were regularly growing, the following interpretation was used: “the clock frequency doubles every 24 months.”. Now, it seems, the dust has been wiped off the long-suffering Moore’s law again and it was decided that it can still serve in the PR business, and according to the current version, the “number of transistors in the processor” is already doubling.

It is in this interpretation of Moore’s Law that AMD is really inferior to Intel. For example, four-core Phenom processors contain about 450 million. transistors, and Core 2 Quad on the Yorkfield core consists of two dual-core “halves” of 410 million. transistors each, total – 820 million. per processor. An impressive size, almost double the size! But is there directly in this fact any reason for pride and for whom? If we turn to performance tests, it turns out that, working at the same frequency with Phenom, Yorkfield wins, but certainly not twice, and not even tens of percent, if you look at the average. That is, AMD can be proud of the fact that in terms of the number of transistors, its processors are more than 1.5 times more powerful. It is quite a suitable argument, if we are talking about “technological” PR.

What does this mean in practice? A smaller number of transistors with the same technical process means a smaller area of ​​the processor core, which means that a larger number of processors themselves, “cut” from a standard 300 mm plate, respectively, reduces the cost of finished processors. On the other hand, there is a “competitive margin” for adding transistors, if needed in order to increase functionality. And it may be needed, judging by AMD’s plans regarding the integration of the graphics core into central processors, quite soon.

Maybe at least for supercomputers, in order to achieve maximum performance, increasing the number of transistors in a single processor is the only possible way? But why then did Cray Corporation choose AMD Opteron processors with the same number of transistors as Phenom to build the world’s most powerful supercomputer Baker?? And not, for example, Intel Itanium, in which the number of transistors has already exceeded a billion, and by the end of the year Intel promises to increase it to 2 billion. It looks like analysts sent AMD to Brazil a bit early.

Source: Dmitry Laptev (editor of the “Platform” section)

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